By Javier Surasky-
The Summit
of the Future is here. The stage is set, and in a few hours, we will know the
situation countries will face as they begin meetings regarding the Future Pact,
the Global Digital Compact, and the Declaration on Future Generations, all now
under a silence procedure in a final effort to achieve consensus.
It's an
opportune moment to review who the specific actors shaping the Summit will be.
A good way to do this is to start with the lists of those who will speak in
each of the four interactive dialogues that organize the work program:
- Interactive Dialogue 1: Transforming global governance and accelerating the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development.
- Interactive Dialogue 2: Improving multilateralism for international peace and security.
- Interactive Dialogue 3: Towards a shared digital future: strengthening inclusive innovation and cooperation to overcome digital divides.
- Interactive Dialogue 4: The future begins now: improving the global system for current and future generations.
According
to information shared by the United Nations, representatives from 123 countries and the European Union will speak during the dialogues.
Only one, Somalia, will do so in two, and all others will do so in just one. Of
these, 83% will be men (103, compared to 17 women).
If we look
at the level of representation during the dialogues, we'll see that the
"Summit" is an "augmented" high-level event:
Source: Author's own elaboration
Let's consider the categories of heads of state and government and other high-level representatives on one hand and ministers and below ministerial level on the other. We see that the latter group includes the most significant number of participants
(65 versus 49 of higher level), which means that slightly more than half of the country representatives
in the interactive dialogues (52%) will be at the ministerial level or below.
If we look
at the distribution of countries by region, we have the following result:
Source: Author's own elaboration
Observing how the country representatives will be distributed by region, among the four interactive dialogues is interesting.
|
Number
of countries by dialogue & region |
|
|
Africa |
Asia |
LAC |
Oceania |
Europe+North America |
|
Interactive Dialogue 1
(Global governance and turbocharging |
18 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
|
Interactive Dialogue 2 (Peace
and security) |
10 |
11 |
2 |
2 |
11 |
|
Interactive Dialogue 3 (A
common digital future) |
6 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
13 |
|
Interactive Dialogue 4
(Current and future generations) |
4 |
5 |
9 |
1 |
7 |
By
highlighting in blue the dialogue where each region will have the majority of
its countries participating, we see a kind of "distribution":
Discussions on governance capture the most attention from African and Oceanian
countries, the peace and security dialogue will have the most significant number of
Asian countries, while Europe and North America will contribute the most
representatives to the dialogue on the digital future, and Latin America and
the Caribbean to that of future generations. Is it possible to imagine regional
leadership for each area post-Summit of the Future?
If we do
the same exercise but consider the participating countries in each dialogue
according to their income level, the result is as follows:
Number of countries by dialogue & income-level
|
|
Low |
Lower-Middle |
Upper-Middle |
High |
|
Interactive Dialogue 1
(Global governance and turbocharging |
6 |
14 |
8 |
7 |
|
Interactive Dialogue 2 (Peace
and security) |
8 |
7 |
10 |
11 |
|
Interactive Dialogue 3 (A
common digital future) |
3 |
5 |
7 |
12 |
|
Interactive Dialogue 4
(Current and future generations) |
2 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
Source: Author's own elaboration
Now the
vision changes: for three of the four dialogues, we will have in the room a
majority representation of high-income countries, which is not a good
representation of the current world nor a good starting point for discussing a
new, more inclusive, democratic, and participatory multilateralism.
This
situation is aligned with the composition of the dialogues and the countries
that will be participating in the Summit. If we analyze them by their income
levels, we find that those with the highest incomes will have the most remarkable presence:
Source: Author's own elaboration
This
"x-ray" of participation will need to be considered when analyzing
the results of the Summit, which will be no more democratic than the reality of
our current world. It will seek to build a better multilateralism without
having dared to challenge the tools of the current one, trapped in
"traditional" negotiations, previously agreed terms, and limited
political ambition.
