Pact for the Future Rev-2 (Part 1) - Disbalances and Structural Inconsistencies: Climate change, poverty, and hunger in Rev-2

By Javier Surasky-

On 17 July the co-facilitators of the Pact for the Future (PpF) negotiations published the second revision of its text, following the launch of the Zero Draft on 26 January 2024, and its first revision (Rev-1) on 14 May 2024. This is the first post analyzing the PfF second revision (Rev-2). We will continue analyzing this document in future entries.

The new release brings some important news. We can see the new version of the Preamble, a part of the document included in the Zero Draft but erased in Rev-1, and even when the document's structure has not changed, the 63 paragraphs in Rev-1 have become 82 in Rev-2. As expected, the “paragraphs inflation” affecting almost every UN document has taken the PpF.

Is Rev-2 stronger, more ambitious than Rev-1? I don’t think so. Beyond some new commitments, the tone of the Pact has not changed. Let’s delve into Rev-2 so you can make your opinion.

The Preamble

Recovering the UN Charter spirit, the PpF opens with the Heads of State and Government expressly declaring that they are “representing the peoples of the world” and presenting their reason for the gathering: “to protect the needs and interests of present and future generations.” (§1). It is essential, and we will find it again many times, that the final document to be adopted at the Summit of the Future includes from the very beginning a mention to the future generations because its results will impact them and, from now on, they will be part of the discussions, although we still have to decide how it will happen.

The following paragraphs draw, one more time, the picture of a world on the brink of collapse, facing the risk of “tipping irreversibly into a future of persistent crisis and breakdown.” (§2). Then, the usual mentions to hope, opportunity, our common humanity, and the “path to a brighter future for all” (§4) that we only can walk if we recommit to multilateralism, that “is not an option but a necessity” (§5), and must be “effective, prepared, representative, inclusive, interconnected, and financially stable” (§6).

Then, the pledge to “reboot” the system: “We pledge a new beginning in international cooperation” (§7), and the well-known recommitments to international law, the three pillars of the United Nations (sustainable development, peace and security, and human rights), the leave no one behind principle, the 2030 Agenda and the acceleration of the SDGs “including through concrete political steps and adequate finance” (§8), the reaffirmation of poverty as the greatest global challenge, the critical importance of keeping temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius (strangely, without mentioning the Paris Agreement) (§9), the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (§10), the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action (§11) and so far, and so on.

And then, what seems to be a long-time overdue insight: “We recognize that the well-being of current and future generations and the sustainability of our planet rests on our willingness to take action,” and the consequent decision to “review progress on the implementation of the actions in this Pact and its Annexes at the beginning of the eighty-third session through a meeting at the level of Heads of State and Government” (§14). This creates the need to align the follow-up dates included in the Global Digital Compact and the Declaration on Future Generations, which are still under construction.

Finally, the Preamble (unnecessarily) lists the 58 actions contained in the PpF.

The Chapters structure: What about climate change, poverty, and hunger?

As previously agreed, the corpus of the PpF is organized into five thematic chapters, each one including a chapeau and general actions whose real content is specified in “decisions,” some of them establishing a deadline to be fulfilled, more or less replicating the goals and targets scheme but renaming its parts. The following table presents the PpF Rev-2 skeleton:

• Chapter 1: Sustainable Development and Financing for Development. 12 Actions, 48 decisions.
• Chapter 2: International Peace and Security. 17 Actions, 69 decisions.
• Chapter 3: Science, Technology and Innovation and Digital Cooperation. 7 Actions, 21 decisions,
• Chapter 4: Youth and Future Generations. 4 Actions, 19 decisions.
• Chapter 5: Transforming Global Governance. 18 Actions, 57 decisions, and a caveat: This chapter includes one action (#42) on The Security Council reform still to be framed. The co-facilitators explain they “will present language on this issue as soon as possible in light of ongoing deliberations in other UN fora.”

It does not look very well balanced to me: chapters 2 and 5 lists more than 60% of the actions (35 of 58) and more than 80% of the “decisions” (174 of 214). Consequently, I can say that the PpF is mainly a document on strengthening international peace and security and reforming global governance, showing a disbalance between the three dimensions of Sustainable Development and also between the three UN pillars, despite the affirmations made in the Preamble.

Moreover, the Preamble states that it is critical to keep temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius (§9), and we do not have a chapter on climate (we knew it, nothing new). Still, it is surprising that only 2 actions mention climate change: action 9 on enhancing our ambition to address climate change, and 53 on accelerating the reform of the international financial architecture so that it can meet the challenge of climate change (rarely, no decision under this action includes the expression “climate change”). Nevertheless, climate change is mentioned in actions 10 (Accelerate our efforts to protect, conserve, and sustainably use the environment) and 21 (Address the challenges posed to international peace and security by adverse climate and environmental impacts) introductory paragraphs.

At the level of “decisions,” climate change is referred to only 5 times (9a; 21a; 21b; 38e; and 51e), which means 2.3%, and the Paris Agreement is mentioned two times across the document. Those are low numbers, aren’t they?

If you answer “yes,” hold your horses until you know how many actions are expressly focused on fighting poverty, “the greatest global challenge,” according to paragraph 9.

Rev-2 includes two actions directly related to fighting poverty: action 2 on placing the eradication of poverty at the center of the efforts to achieve the 2030 Agenda, and action 6 on investing in people to end poverty and strengthen trust and social cohesion. This represents an increment of 100% from Rev-1, which included only one action focused on fighting poverty.

The new action is number two and starts strong, stating that eradicating poverty “is an imperative for all humankind.” This action provides a good example of why I use quotation marks each time I write the word “decisions.” One of the “decisions” under this action is to “take concrete actions to prevent people falling back into poverty, including by establishing social protection systems.” Nothing new here. Just an empty, bold, and hardly actionable promise disguised as a “decision” that will help to renew international cooperation and strengthen multilateralism.

Luckily, countries included in Rev-2 one action, number three, on ending hunger and eliminating food insecurity. Believe it or not, there were no mentions of hunger in Rev-1, so this new action is welcome! Now, the word “hunger” appears six times across the document (“hungry” not even once).

A first approach to the Pact of the Future Rev-2 shows that coherence is not a strong part of this document.