By Javier Surasky-
As we
pointed out in previous posts on this blog, the only issue that remains pending
for inclusion in the second reading of the Pact for the Future is the one
referring to the reform of the Security Council. The current co-facilitators of
the "Intergovernmental Negotiations on the Question of Equitable
Representation on and Increase in the Membership of the Security Council and
Other Matters Related to the Council" process taking place within the
United Nations, Austria, and Kuwait, published on August 12th the "Final
Revised Version of the IGN Contribution to the Pact for the Future" that
provides that missing content.
Before
analyzing the proposal, it is worth remembering that this is merely another
step in a long history of complaints against the structure and functioning of
the Security Council (SC), which led to the opening of formal negotiations on
its reform as early as 1993, with the establishment of the Open-ended Working
Group on the Question of Equitable Representation on and Increase in the
Membership of the Security Council and Other Matters Related to the Security
Council. In 2008, the process of Intergovernmental Negotiations (A/Dec/62/557)
was opened on the same topic, which is carried out without interrupting the
work of the Working Group and is the origin of the document we are now
analyzing.
The issues
that the IGN must negotiate according to its launch document are: 1. the
categories of Security Council members; 2. the veto issue; 3. regional
representation; 4. the size of an enlarged Council and its working methods; and
5. the relationship between the Council and the General Assembly.
The reform
proposals have been numerous and different, including the expansion of the
Council, the creation of a "semi-permanent member" category,
restrictions on the use of the veto, the requirement of two negative votes from
permanent members to veto a resolution, and issues that do not accept the
application of the veto, among other vital elements.
Among the
multiple proposals that have been put on the table in the IGN, the one that has
gained the most traction but is still far from being realized is the one led
by the Group of Four (Germany, Japan, India, and Brazil), supported by the
African group. This proposal calls for the inclusion of six new permanent
members, distributed by regions (two for Asia, two for Africa, one for Latin
America and the Caribbean, and one for Eastern Europe and other groups), and
includes a call to review the structure and functioning of the SC again 15
years after it has been reformed. The Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace report titled UN
Security Council Reform: What the World Thinks, published in June 2023,
provides a good current state of the main positions under debate.
The IGN Proposal for the Pact for the Future
The
document that emerged from the IGN as a contribution to the Pact for the Future
to be adopted at the Summit of the Future in September 2024 is drafted
according to the scheme that has been given to that Pact, which we have
analyzed in a series of entries on this blog, defining three actions, each of
which has a brief introductory paragraph and is broken down into multiple
"decisions."
The first
action is to reform the SC, "recognizing the urgent need to make it more
representative, inclusive, transparent, efficient, effective, democratic and
accountable."
There, in
the face of "the growing urgency to increase the effectiveness of the
United Nations' abilities to maintain international peace and security,"
the states agree ("agree," an expression that is very likely to be
changed to "decide" to align it with the vocabulary used in the Pact
for the Future) on a series of guiding principles identified in the IGN as
parameters for the reform of this body. Each of these principles is presented
in the form of a "decision" to be included in the Pact:
a)
Redressing the "historical injustice" suffered by Africa due to its
lack of representation on the SC is identified as a priority, immediately
adding that the representation of underrepresented regions and groups such as
Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean should also be improved. This
decision, aligned with the G4 proposal and the claims of the African group, is
the result of consistent and unified work between the two that has been
sustained over time, in which each party made its contribution to a win-win
cooperation action: the G4 leadership roles, the African group, number of votes
in the General Assembly.
b) In line
with the previous decision, the States agree to expand the SC to make it more
representative of the current UN membership and reflect the contemporary world.
In this step, they expressly call for considering Sustainable
Development Goal target 16.8 of increasing the representation of developing
countries and small and medium-sized States. This decision indicates a possible
agreement on the need to expand the members of the SC, something that generates
intense debates as it may lead to "more of the same" but with more
players, making the process even more cumbersome and increasing the chances of
not achieving the agreements and consensus that the SC needs to act.
c) Continue
discussions on the representation of other groups of countries and other
regions, clarifying that this is due to the mentions of Small Island Developing
States, Arab States, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and other
groups of States in the IGN debates. Nothing concrete in this decision seems to
be a minimum compromise: it is doubtful today that separate spaces will be
assigned to the OIC, given the current and long-standing geopolitical situation.
d)
Intensify efforts to reach agreements on the categories that Security Council
members would have, clarifying that the reform must include an expansion of the
2-year non-permanent seats without having to be limited to that. That is
another minimum compromise that avoids pronouncements on expanding permanent
members or creating new categories.
e) It is
expressly stated that the total number of members that the SC may have after an
expansion "must ensure a balance between its representativeness and
effectiveness." As mentioned, this issue generates intense
discussions, and here, it only states what all parties agree on without
defining how to move towards that balance or what elements should be considered
in that analysis.
f) The
working methods must guarantee the inclusive, transparent, efficient,
effective, democratic, and accountable functioning of an enlarged Council.
Again, the reaffirmation of a commitment where, in general terms, there is
international agreement, but which does not provide new elements or guidelines
for knowing what should be understood by each of the concepts it names, all of
which can be interpreted in multiple ways.
g)
Intensify efforts to reach an agreement on the future of the veto, including
discussions on limiting its scope and use. Again, nothing concrete and more of
the same.
h) A
comprehensive reform of the SC must consider the inclusion of a review clause
"to ensure that the Security Council continues to fulfill its mandate and
remains fit for purpose over time." There are no time references or
possible periodicity marks for the reviews. Still, it represents a consensus on
the need to establish a system enabling the SC to play its role in a rapidly
changing world.
The second
action aims to reinforce the efforts being made within the framework of the IGN
"as a priority and without delay."
The Member
States reinforces the idea that the negotiation process to reform the SC must
be under their leadership and again refer to their commitment to intensify
efforts to achieve the reform, taking as references the already mentioned
decision 62/557 of the General Assembly "and other relevant resolutions
and decisions", expressly mentioning resolution 53/30
of December 1998 on equitable representation in the Security Council and the
increase in the number of its members and related matters, by which that body
decided that any resolution or decision on the question of equitable
representation in the Security Council and the increase in the number of its
members and related matters would only be adopted by a two-thirds affirmative
vote of the Members of the General Assembly (without using the expression
"members present and voting" used by both the UN Charter and the
Rules of Procedure of the General Assembly).
Recognizing
that "recent" progress has been made in the IGN, including
"greater transparency and inclusiveness and the strengthening of its
institutional memory," the only "decision" included in this
action is:
a)
Encourage the presentation of more models and the revision of the models
already presented by States and Groups of States for structured dialogues to develop in the future a consolidated model based on the
convergences between the five working groups into which the IGN is organized
(its five previously presented themes) and on the models submitted by the
Member States. This paragraph is a continuity of meaningless words to disguise
the lock that is put on the possibility of considering in the IGN reform
proposals from actors other than the States.
The first
two actions focus on the debate process of the necessary reform of the SC. The
third and final action, on the other hand, is oriented towards action and
achieving results by the Council, strengthening its response in maintaining
international peace and security as well as its relationship with the General
Assembly.
The
commitment assumed has two sides: On the one hand, to improve and democratize
the working methods of the SC, and on the other, to strengthen the relationship
between the Council and the General Assembly "in accordance with and
fully respecting their respective functions, authority, powers and
competences" established in the UN Charter. A final sentence confirming
that the previous measures "should not replace the reform of the United
Nations Security Council" is included to leave no doubts. The decisions
accompanying this action are:
a) Fully
implement and comply with all the provisions of the Charter of the United
Nations with respect to the decision-making process in the United Nations
Security Council, expressly (and unnecessarily) mentioning Article 27.3, which
establishes the voting system for matters other than procedural (i.e., for
substantive matters) allowing the exercise of the veto by the five permanent
members. The message is clear: there is no willingness for this to
change, notwithstanding what any romantic might see in the other actions and
decisions.
b) Support
credible, timely, and decisive actions by the SC in the exercise of its primary
responsibility to maintain international peace and security to prevent or stop
genocide, crimes against humanity, or war crimes. No element allows us to know what the countries are talking about when they refer to
actions that must be "credible, timely, and decisive."
In addition
to this, the enumeration of serious international crimes such as genocide,
crimes against peace and humanity, all of them under the jurisdiction of the
International Criminal Court, is not only unnecessary but "forgets"
to mention the crime of aggression, which is also under the jurisdiction of
that court and can be prosecuted after its definition by the Assembly of States
Parties of the International Criminal Court held in Uganda in 2010, an element
that is contrary to the palate of the permanent members of the SC who deny that
an international body other than the SC can determine whether an aggression has
occurred in a sense established by the UN Charter (especially in its Article
39), even when to do so it applies the definition of this that gives General
Assembly resolution 3314
(XXIX).
c)
"Actively reinforce the ongoing efforts of the Security Council to review
and improve its working methods, including, inter alia, drafting and
co-drafting arrangements, and strengthen the cooperation and communication
between the Security Council and the General Assembly and its subsidiary
bodies, including the Peacebuilding Commission, as well as the Economic and
Social Council and regional and subregional arrangements, through the full
implementation and continued use of General Assembly resolutions 377A(V)
("Uniting for Peace") and 76/262
("Veto Initiative")." This decision also has two clearly
distinguishable facets:
- On the one hand, it aims to strengthen communication between the General Assembly and its subsidiary bodies, ECOSOC (here without mentioning its subsidiary bodies), and regional and subregional organizations with responsibilities in maintaining international peace, the express inclusion of the Peacebuilding Commission being noteworthy.
- On the other hand, the final references to General Assembly resolutions 377A(V) "Uniting for Peace," which empowers the General Assembly to act when the SC cannot fulfill its mission of maintaining international peace and security due to the lack of unanimity among its permanent members, even recommending the use of armed force when necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security, and 76/262 "Veto Initiative", by which the Member States decided that an official meeting of the body shall be convened within ten working days when one or more permanent members of the Security Council exercise their right of veto, to hold a debate on the situation to which it refers. This is the only "concession" that the permanent members make in the document we are analyzing, and we must highlight that it is a recognition of facts that have already occurred, and are therefore undeniable, which the other countries carry as references in their positions in the IGN.
d) Improve
the participation and access to the work of the Security Council and its
subsidiary bodies for all members of the General Assembly to increase the
Council's accountability and transparency. This is a repetition of the decision
of action one, which adds little to what was said there and remains silent on
non-governmental actors, which amounts to excluding them.
So what?
The
proposal sent by the IGN co-facilitators, limited to the narrow margin of the
possible in the matter of Security Council reform, barely brings any progress
that brings us closer to that objective. They provide general,
polysemic concepts, reaffirmation of basic agreements already known that take
advantage of those open concepts so that nothing is completely clear, and the
reassurance of the total exclusion of non-governmental actors from the relevant
spaces of discussion and decision-making.
The path
that the reform of the SC follows would make Prince Fabrizio of Salina in the
novel The Leopard feel ashamed of his limited imagination of his own when he
said, "If we want everything to stay as it is, everything must
change." The current call seems to be: "If the powerful want
everything to stay as it is, everything must appear to change
without changing anything."
Definitely,
sometimes reality exceeds fiction.
